Welcome to Summer 2024 fellow investors. As the arena of sports media continues to evolve, legal battles and innovative sports ventures are reshaping the landscape.

Media

Diamond Sports' Bankruptcy Drama: A Battle for Information

The bankruptcy proceedings of Diamond Sports, owner of Bally Sports regional networks, have taken a turn. The company is seeking an emergency hearing to shield its pay-TV contracts from the prying eyes of the NBA, NHL, and MLB. These leagues, wary of Diamond's concessions to Comcast (CMCSA) and the potential activation of “most favored nation” clauses, are seeking insights into Diamond's distribution and viability. However, pay-TV providers like Cox worry that the disclosure of sensitive information could harm them in competitive landscape. This battle underscores the complex relationships and stakes involved in the distribution of sports content.

Furthermore, with Comcast's stock trading near its lows, this may be an opportune time for investors. While there are risks to broadband and media, the current valuation is compelling, coupled with trading at a near all-time low multiple, a buyback program, and ever-changing Hulu valuation.

The WNBA's Rising Star: Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever

The Chicago Sky and Indiana Fever WNBA matchup recently achieved a remarkable feat, drawing the largest audience for a WNBA game in 23 years.

This demonstrates the growing popularity of women's sports and highlights the league's potential for continued growth and viewership.

Netflix (NFLX) and NFL Sunday Ticket: A New Era in Sports Streaming

While Netflix has secured the domestic TV rights for two Christmas Day NFL games, the streaming giant now faces the task of assembling a production team and securing talent. Given the already demanding schedules of partners like CBS Sports, ESPN, and NBCUniversal, this effort may prove challenging.

Meanwhile, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has defended the high price of NFL Sunday Ticket in court, arguing that it's a premium product and that fans ultimately choose to pay for it. The outcome of this lawsuit could significantly impact the future of sports media rights and pricing.

New Streaming Players and Partnerships: Venu Sports

Venu Sports, a joint venture between Fox (FOX), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), and Disney (DIS), is building its team with key hires, signaling its intention to become a major player in sports streaming.

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As tech and media continue to change, companies are unveiling new strategies and products while grappling with existing challenges. Let's explore this week's noteworthy developments.

Tech Titans

Google (GOOGL): Embracing Text-Based Simplicity and AI Advancements

Google is rolling out a new "Web" filter that displays only text-based links in search results. The tech giant also held its annual Google I/O developer conference, focused heavily on integrating generative AI into its products, including Search, Maps, and Android.

Apple (AAPL): Exploring AI Partnerships with OpenAI and Google

Apple is reportedly nearing a deal with OpenAI to integrate the startup's chatbot technology into the iPhone. This move comes amid ongoing discussions with Google for a similar partnership.

Meta (META): Embracing Future with "Camerabuds" and Threads Fact-Checking

Meta is venturing into wearables with "Camerabuds," a concept for headphones or earbuds with cameras that utilize real-time AI features. Additionally, Meta's newest social network, Threads, is bolstering its credibility by launching an independent fact-checking program, separate from Instagram and Facebook, to combat misinformation before the upcoming US election.

Intel (INTC): Seeking Financial Support for Semiconductor Expansion

Intel is in advanced discussions with Apollo Global Management for an $11b investment to build a plant in Ireland. This partnership aims to alleviate high costs associated with chip factories.

Nvidia Powers AI-Driven Scientific Advances

Nvidia continues to solidify its position as a leader in AI, detailing how its chips are accelerating innovation in high-performance computing. The company's involvement in quantum computing centers worldwide, particularly through its CUDA-Q platform, underscores its commitment to pushing the boundaries of this technology.

Media

Free Streaming's Triumphant March

April's Nielsen data reveals free ad-supported streaming services are gaining ground. Tubi, The Roku Channel, and Pluto TV, with their combined share of ~4%, are capturing consumers who have cut ties with cable. While YouTube remains the champion, the growing popularity of these free alternatives signals a shift in preferences.

Television Viewing: A Mixed Bag

Household TV streaming viewership saw a slight dip in April, primarily due to declines in YouTube and broadcast viewing. Cable TV enjoyed a modest gain, thanks to the NCAA and NBA , proving that live sports still hold strong.

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NFL: Eyes on Private Equity

The NFL is exploring allowing owners to sell up to 30% of their teams to private equity firms. This move could inject significant capital into the league and alter ownership dynamics. However, the terms and implications remain uncertain, and decisions are expected in the coming months.

Diamond vs. Comcast (CMCSA): The Battle for Distribution

Diamond Sports, the owner of the Bally Sports regional networks, is taking a stand against Comcast in a dispute over distribution fees. In a message to subscribers, Diamond accuses Comcast of seeking higher fees that would increase costs for viewers. This highlights the tensions between content providers and distributors.

Formula E: Charging Up the US Market

Formula E, the electric racing series, is targeting the US as a growth area. With its lone US race weekend in Portland this June, Formula E is looking to capitalize on the popularity of electric vehicles and motorsport, mirroring Formula One's expansion.

Formula One (FWONA): Strong Performance and Financial Results

Formula One is enjoying continued success, with the recent Miami Grand Prix setting a new US TV audience record. Additionally, parent company Liberty Media reported a robust $553m in revenue for Q1 2024, underscoring the global appeal and financial strength of the motorsport.

NASCAR: Shifting Gears in Broadcasting

As NASCAR prepares for new media rights deals with Amazon (AMZN) and Warner Bros. Discovery, it is also adjusting its strategy. The 2024 season will see a rebalanced distribution of races between Fox Sports (FOX) and NBC Sports, with fewer races on each network. Adding Prime Video and TNT/Max in the mix signals NASCAR's effort to reach a wider audience.

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Tech Titans

Apple’s Renewed Interest in OpenAI

Reports suggest Apple is back at the negotiating table with OpenAI potentially seeking to integrate generative AI features into the upcoming iOS 18. This follows news last month of Apple’s talks with Google about using their Gemini chatbot.

Google Fights Back Against the DOJ

In a bold move, Google has filed a motion to dismiss the Department of Justice’s landmark antitrust lawsuit. The DOJ accuses Google of monopolizing the digital advertising market, alleging that the tech giant engages in “anticompetitive and exclusionary” practices.

Musk’s China Mission – Expediting Self-Driving Tech

Reports indicate Elon Musk’s recent China trip aimed to accelerate the rollout of Tesla’s full self-driving technology in the world’s largest EV market. His visit highlights both the opportunities and challenges Tesla faces in this crucial region.

Media

Paramount CEO’s Future Uncertain

Reports suggest Paramount Global CEO Bob Bakish could be ousted as early as this week. He reported opposition to a merger with Skydance Media. This conflict comes at a crucial time, with renewal negotiations with Charter Communications looming.

TikTok: Mere Ownership Changes Solve Little

The proposed legislation to force TikTok’s sale underscores a fundamental misunderstanding. The security threat lies not in who owns the app, but in the minds that crafted its algorithms. TikTok’s success comes from Chinese-developed code that understands US users. Even under new ownership, this algorithm would likely remain out of reach due to Chinese regulations.

Selling TikTok without its algorithmic heart is akin to offering a Ferrari without its engine – attractive in appearance, but ultimately worthless. US developers must craft a new algorithm. TikTok’s main US competitors are Meta and Snap Inc. (SnapChat)

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Amazon (AMZN): Growth Engine

Internet and consumer investors remain bullish on Amazon. Questions about China and regulatory risks persist, but shouldn't derail the narrative. Here's what will drive the stock higher:

• AWS Growth: Accelerating from +13% to +17% by the end of 2024

• Retail Profitability: Amazon's increasing efficiency is well documented

• Buyback Buzz: With the stock trading at a high free cash flow, buybacks are likely

  

Alphabet (GOOGL): Upside Potential

Google has an upcoming catalyst path (Google Cloud Next, earnings, DOJ remarks, Google I/O, and Apple WWDC), which could fuel momentum.

The HubSpot acquisition highlights that GOOGL might have underinvested in SaaS over the years, and this deal could rectify that, driving Cloud growth and advertisers.

Apple (AAPL): Value Play

Challenges like consumer spending, China, and regulation remain, but the valuation is becoming more palatable. Estimates also don't reflect a potential AI-driven iPhone supercycle (next year).

Meta (META): AI Could Fuel More Growth

The bull case for Meta is straightforward – with nearly 30% growth and generative AI upside.

Microsoft (MSFT): Bulletproof

Microsoft remains the best-in-class software on both the consumption and application sides, plus generative AI upside. Azure's ~30% growth (representing ~30% of revenue) underpins consistent growth.

Netflix (NFLX): Concerns Amidst Growth

Netflix's valuation is getting tougher to defend. Subscriber data remains strong as management pulls levers around password sharing.

Nvidia (NVDA): Core AI Play

Nvidia remains the heart and soul of the AI revolution, boasting visionary management, strong execution, and compelling value. Performance has been driven largely by earnings, growing confidence in AI use cases, and that the Total Cost of Ownership is a better metric than system cost.

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Fellow investors, the world of sports, media, and tech never seems to slow down. Let's delve into the fascinating forces and controversies shaping these industries.

Sports

World Cup Windfall: Economic Boost for Host Cities

The 2026 FIFA World Cup promises an economic windfall for its host cities. With its expansive format—104 games, 48 teams, spread across the US, Mexico, and Canada—Boston Consulting Group anticipates $5b+ in benefits and a $1b+ boost to workers' earnings. Miami, in particular, stands to gain hundreds of millions from hosting seven matches.

Streaming Strikes and Fumbles: Peacock Scores, Amazon Stumbles

Peacock ($CMCSA) continues its sports streaming dominance, securing exclusive rights to an NFL opening week game following its record-breaking AFC Wild Card broadcast. However, Amazon ($AMZN) seems to be backing away from its potential deal to pick up MLB games from the embattled Bally Sports. This casts a shadow on the future of regional sports streaming.

Betting Backlash: NBA, NCAA, and the Dark Side of Gambling

The sports betting industry is facing heightened scrutiny. Ruby Gobert's recent criticism sparked an NBA investigation into betting irregularities involving a player. The NCAA's "Draw the Line" campaign targets the risks of sports betting, emphasizing athlete harassment and threats to the integrity of the game. It's clear that ethical concerns are coming to the forefront as gambling's influence expands.

Additionally, DraftKings ($DKNG) stock took a hit on Wednesday after the NCAA announced a push to ban college prop bets. The company's shares closed down 6.8%, reflecting concerns over this revenue stream. The news also impacted competitors like FanDuel and MGM Resorts ($MGM), suggesting broader anxieties within mobile sports betting.

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Media

Disney+ and Hulu: A Unified Force

The official launch of the Hulu-Disney+ bundle marks a turning point in the streaming landscape. Disney's ($DIS) decision to combine its two platforms signals a commitment to convenience and value for subs. Positive feedback from the beta phase suggests a successful transition. While licensing complexities linger, the integrated bundle provides an alternative to standalone subscriptions.

FAST and Furious: Content is King

The expansion of FAST (Free Ad-Supported Streaming Television) services is a trend to watch. Sony's launch of dedicated FAST channels across Europe, featuring curated and localized content, demonstrates a demand for accessible programming. Meanwhile, Pluto TV ($PARA) continues its aggressive content strategy with new Warner Bros. Discovery channels and a steady stream of on-demand titles, solidifying its position as a formidable FAST player.

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Tech Titans

Apple

Apple's 35th annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC 2024) will take place June 10-14 as a free online event, focusing on new software and technology. The company also faces a wave of lawsuits alleging it holds a monopoly on the smartphone market, inflating costs of its products. On a positive note, Apple's Vision Pro headset may get a boost in the important Chinese market as Tencent will reportedly supply apps for the device.

Meta

Meta has introduced a new feature on Instagram and Threads, allowing users to opt-out of seeing political content from accounts they don't follow. This aims to reduce unsolicited political content in feeds.

Dell

Dell carried out two major rounds of job cuts throughout 2023, resulting in a 9.7% decrease in its workforce. This March, the stock jumped 34%.

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This week has seen significant activity in media and the streaming world. Let's dive in and analyze the latest trends.

Streaming Wars: The Sports Battleground

It's no secret that live sports are a major draw for cable and satellite packages. But the winds of change are blowing, and streaming giants are making their play.

Antenna Research's findings are telling – streaming sports are not only adding subscribers, but are also keeping them hooked. Paramount+ () saw a whopping 3.4m signups thanks to Super Bowl LVIII, and Peacock added 3m due to its AFC Wild Card Game broadcast. The real surprise is the high retention rates, suggesting that fans are finding value in these options.

Peacock's ( ) new Olympic streaming features are a masterstroke. 'Live Actions' and 'Discovery Multiview' offer a level of control and personalization that traditional broadcasts can't match. It's a clear strategy to lure viewers away from cable.

YouTube's ( ) introduction of 'Multiview' for iOS and their recent TV interface upgrades demonstrate their continued investment in live sports streaming. They're also determined not to be left behind in this race.

Charter's ( ) decision to offer free streaming of Dodgers games for customers with both internet and mobile subscriptions is a risk. It's a concession to the cord-cutting crowd, but one that aims to lock viewers into their broader ecosystem.

The Streaming Divide: Habits and Loyalties

Inscape's TV Market Trends Report paints a fascinating picture of our viewing habits:

• Streaming now accounts for a staggering 58% of average TV viewing time.

• Nearly 66% of streaming viewers never watch traditional cable, satellite, or over-the-air channels. This is a clear indication of the ongoing generational shift.

• Traditional TV still reigns supreme for sports and news, suggesting there's room for coexistence, at least for now.

• The rise of "quiet quitters"–those drastically reducing their cable usage without fully cutting the cord–reveals a growing dissatisfaction with the old model.

• 55% of smart TV viewers solely streamed content last quarter.

  

Password Sharing: A Crackdown with Results

Leichtman Research Group's report shows that only 10% of Netflix () users are still borrowing the service, down from 15% in 2022. This suggests that Netflix's password-sharing crackdown is having an impact. Younger viewers are more likely to use someone else’s account, highlighting the ongoing affordability challenge for streaming services.

Taylor Swift Film Sets New Music Streaming Record

Taylor Swift's "The Eras Tour" movie shattered Disney+ () records, attracting 4.6m views in just three days and becoming the platform's most-watched music film ever. Fans clocked in an impressive 16.2m hours of the 3.5-hour concert film. Significantly, these figures outpace those of other Disney+ movie premieres, which typically track five days of viewing, further highlighting the devoted fanbase and the undeniable appeal of the superstar.

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The future of entertainment is streaming, and companies like Netflix , Disney , and Roku are leading the charge. Revenues are expected to reach $100 billion by 2029, a significant jump from $81 billion in 2023. According to Digital TV Research, North America will be a major contributor to this growth, with the US alone generating an additional $16 billion in streaming revenue by 2029.

Ad-Supported services, which offer free content with commercials/breaks, are also gaining traction. Their revenues are expected to reach $25 billion by 2029, up from $17 billion in 2023. This highlights the demand for flexible and affordable options.

Sports

FuboTV Prepares for a "Duel to the Death" in Streaming Wars

FuboTV, known for its sports focus, is bracing for a major battle. CEO David Gandler recently referred to the company's fight against a new streaming joint venture formed by Disney, Fox, and Warner Bros. Discovery as a "duel to the death."

FuboTV has already filed a federal antitrust lawsuit against the media giants. The new app is seen as a threat to FuboTV's competitive advantage. The lawsuit aims to block the joint venture or impose restrictions, such as fair terms for sports rights. FuboTV is also seeking damages, though the exact amount remains unspecified.

Super Bowl Viewership Grows Internationally

The NFL's international audience for the Super Bowl continues to expand. This year's game saw a 10% increase in viewership compared to 2023. Notably, the US audience reached a record high with 202.4 million viewers. Beyond the US, the Super Bowl drew an audience with 24.1 million viewers in Mexico, 18.8 million in Canada, and 3 million viewers each in Germany, the UK, and Australia.

Netflix Scores Big with Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul Fight

Netflix continues to make a splash in the world of sports by streaming the highly anticipated boxing match between Mike Tyson and Jake Paul. The fight, featuring the boxing legend against the influencer-turned-boxer, is expected to be one of the most-watched sporting events of the year. It will take place on July 20th at the massive AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, marking Netflix's third venture into live sports streaming after "The Netflix Cup" and "The Netflix Slam."

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Media

Temu Emerges as Top Advertiser on Meta

The Chinese e-commerce giant, Temu, has become a major advertising force. In 2023, they emerged as the top advertiser on Meta platforms, spending a staggering $2 billion on Facebook and Instagram ads to reach over 50 million potential customers.

Netflix Makes Big Moves

Netflix is solidifying its content strategy. The streaming service doubled down on its live-action adaptation of "Avatar: The Last Airbender" with a two-season renewal, following the animated series. Netflix's subscriber growth might be impacted by the overall decline in traditional TV ad spending, which reached a 7% year-over-year drop in Q4 2023.

Apple’s BlockBuster Gamble Could Pay Off

Apple is having a strong year in media and entertainment. The company secured the second-highest number of Oscar nominations (13) among studios and streamers thanks to their historical epics "Killers of the Flower Moon" and "Napoleon."

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Tech Titans

Meta Streamlines Operations and Invests in AI

Meta is undergoing several changes to improve efficiency. Facebook Messenger recently laid of 50 employees as part of a reorg. Meanwhile, Instagram is empowering users with new features: the ability to edit sent messages for 15 minutes and pin important conversations to the top of their inbox.

Additionally, Meta continues to invest in AI, developing a system that will power video recommendations across all its platforms, including the popular Reels and traditional video formats.

Amazon Ventures into Grocery Convenience and AI-powered Shopping

Amazon is expanding its reach in the grocery sector with "Whole Foods Market Daily Shop," a convenience store launching in NYC. These smaller stores will focus on prepared meals, seasonal produce, and grab-and-go options. The company is also making strides in AI-powered experiences. "Rufus," a generative AI chatbot, is being introduced to assist users with personalized recommendations and other tasks.

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The streaming industry continues growing, with revenues set to surpass traditional TV in Q3 2024. Antenna's data reveals that 'serial churners', subscribers who switch to save money, are rising and represent 23% of the audience.

Sports

Comcast Spectacor's Vision

Comcast Spectacor has unveiled its plans for the South Philadelphia Sports Complex. Phase 1 will focus on transforming portions of the parking lots into a massive shopping and entertainment destination. Further plans for multifamily or office developments remain a possibility in an 'aspirational' Phase 2 that could take a decade.

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Media

Netflix

Netflix is ending the option to pay for subscriptions through Apple. This move is likely due to Apple taking a percentage of all in-app purchases. Additionally, some users have been benefitting from Netflix's old pricing through Apple's system and will now need to update their subscription tier to either an ad-free or ad-supported version.

Netflix is also unveiling its 2024 India content lineup, with a focus on diversity across 8 feature films and 14 series. This represents a decrease in volume compared to recent years, but still reflects Netflix's commitment to the Indian streaming market.

Meta

Ahead of the European Union elections in June, Meta is fighting against the abuse of generative AI. Their team will prevent fake videos, images, and audio used to mislead voters. This follows a recent agreement with major tech companies to combat misinformation.

Threads, Meta's microblogging app, is outperforming X (formerly known as Twitter) in daily downloads. This dominance began in late 2023 and suggests a potential future shift in the landscape. Threads now boasts 130 million monthly active users (MAUs), while X's MAU figures remain unclear, particularly when factoring in spam accounts.

Lastly, Meta is gearing up to reveal its first true augmented reality (AR) glasses at its Fall conference. Named "Orion," this project has been in development for years and represents a milestone for Meta’s AR ambitions.

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Tech Titans

Apple

Despite initial concerns about returns of Vision Pro headsets, industry analysts estimate the return rate has now fallen to 1%. US shipments are predicted to reach between 200,000 and 250,000 units in 2024, surpassing Apple's projections.

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This week, I'm listening for signals about cloud demand, cybersecurity trends, and the overall health of the tech sector. Earnings calls from leaders like , , , , , and will offer not only financial updates, but also insights into AI investments and use cases for some of the largest consumer databases.

Sports

Apple TV & MLS

Apple TV celebrates the return of Major League Soccer with the second season of its MLS Season Pass offering. This follows the historic 10-year deal Apple struck with the league in 2022, which coincided with superstar Lionel Messi's move to the MLS. Apple is highlighting the league with "MLS is Back" week, kicking off with Messi's Inter Miami CF taking on Real Salt Lake. Fans can also find soccer content on Apple Podcasts, like "Offside With Taylor Twellman."

Apple Sports App Debut

Apple enters the sports arena with its new Apple Sports app. This platform provides fans with scores, statistics, and even live betting odds – enhancing the game-day experience. Initially available in the US, UK, and Canada, Apple Sports supports major leagues like the MLS, NBA, NCAA basketball, NHL, and international soccer leagues. More leagues are set to join the lineup soon, including MLB, NFL, and more.

The app offers game pages with details like goal scorers, current players on the field/court, and even live betting odds (which can be toggled off). However, it's important to note that Apple Sports is not a streaming app itself. Instead, it partners with the Apple TV app, directing users to live games and offering subscription options where needed. Fans can also sync their favorite teams and leagues with Apple News for a personalized sports experience.

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Media

FAST Streaming Growth

FAST (Free Ad-Supported Streaming TV) services are gaining a foothold in the market. According to Nielsen's January 2024 rankings, Tubi, Pluto TV, and The Roku Channel all secured spots in the top viewed streaming platforms. Pluto TV made history as the first free ad-supported service to break into Nielsen's top 10.

Instagram

Instagram expands its marketplace tool for brand-creator collaborations across eight more countries, including Canada, Australia, the UK, and India. This tool launched in the US in 2022 and has proven successful in connecting brands with relevant creators. With the expansion, thousands more creators and brands will gain access to this partnership platform.

Netflix

Netflix Games adds a classic to its lineup with "Pinball Masters." Developed by Zen Studios, this mobile game is included with a Netflix subscription and offers themed tables featuring beloved characters. It marks the third new game for the streaming platform this year and aims to attract fans of pinball and recognizable franchises.

Netflix also strengthens its unscripted offerings by hiring Jeff Gaspin as VP of unscripted series. He'll oversee reality juggernauts like "Queer Eye" and "Love is Blind," aiming to expand the platform's success. Gaspin brings experience from Gaspin Media, known for Netflix titles like "The Tinder Swindler.

Paramount Global

Paramount Global and Comcast, parent company of NBCUniversal, are exploring streaming collaboration options according to the Wall Street Journal. Potential paths include a joint venture or a streaming partnership involving Peacock. Notably, the two companies already work together on the European streaming service SkyShowtime.

Disney

Disney is well-positioned for success in the resurgence of content licensing. With 148 titles, they hold more licensing power than any other major studio. This strategic shift signals a move away from keeping content on their own platforms. Industry experts predict studios will balance exclusive and non-exclusive content deals in 2024 to maximize value and broaden audience reach.

Universal Music Group

Universal Music Group continues to invest in music rights, acquiring a $240 million minority stake in Chord Music Partners. This deal gives UMG access to the music catalogs of popular artists such as The Weeknd, Lorde, John Legend, and Twenty One Pilots. The investment positions UMG for long-term benefits from these artists' work.

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Tech Titans

Microsoft

Microsoft's Copilot Pro subscription aims to boost productivity by integrating AI features into Office apps. Its $20/month price tag grants access to enhanced image generation with OpenAI and other tools. Reactions are mixed: Outlook's email summaries are useful, but other features in Word, Excel, and PowerPoint offer uneven value. The full potential of Copilot Pro remains to be seen, with custom GPTs still pending.

Intel advanced its chip foundry ambitions: they've secured Microsoft as a client and set its sights on overtaking TSMC in advanced chip manufacturing by 2025. Their 18A technology will underpin an undisclosed Microsoft chip. Intel looks to US subsidies and geographic manufacturing diversification to appeal to customers wary of TSMC's Taiwan concentration.

Apple

Apple continues to prioritize security. Its PQ3 protocol for iMessage offers Level 3 security against attacks by quantum computers. Both initial key establishment and ongoing messaging will be shielded using post-quantum cryptography. With formal verification in place, PQ3 will appear in future Apple OS updates, making iMessage a pioneer in secure communication.

Reports on Apple's Vision Pro headset suggest a possible high return rate, though Apple refutes those claims. Discomfort and high price are reportedly why some users are opting out of the VR headset. Return rates are said to be average at best, indicating a lukewarm reception compared to other Apple products.

Amazon

Amazon Fresh simplifies grocery shopping with its new Recurring Reservations feature. Customers can now place pickup or delivery orders a week in advance. The Repeat Items feature further streamlines the process by adding favorite items to their carts, enhancing convenience for repeat shoppers.

Google

Google TV executive Rob Caruso sees smart TVs as the potential hub for connected homes. Caruso envisions TVs controlling various smart devices, including thermostats, doorbells, and even water meters. This vision aligns with long-standing industry predictions and signifies Google's focus on making the TV a central component of the connected home experience.

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Sports

The excitement of the Daytona 500 will have to wait another day! Due to persistent rain, the 66th running of the "Great American Race" has been postponed until Monday, February 19th, at 4 pm ET. This marks a historic first for the event, creating a rare Monday doubleheader with the previously postponed Xfinity Series race starting at 11 am ET.

The roar of engines will fill the air this week as NASCAR launches its new season, but the competition on the track might be overshadowed by an off-track struggle. Teams arriving at Daytona International Speedway seeking to dethrone Team Penske, reigning champions for two years, yet a contentious revenue-sharing agreement remains unresolved. Months of negotiations between teams and NASCAR haven't yielded a new agreement, leaving terms in a sore spot. This battle threatens to distract from the on-track action over the season.

Additionally, a new sports streaming bundle from ESPN, Fox, and Warner Bros. Discovery is unlikely to face immediate intervention from Congress or the FCC. However, analysts predicts that potential harm to other players in the market could eventually trigger a government reaction. This highlights the ongoing debate surrounding antitrust implications in sports broadcasting.

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Media

Sony Music Group has acquired a 50% stake in Michael Jackson's music assets for a hefty sum, estimated between $1.2 billion and $1.5 billion. This deal secures a significant portion of the legendary artist's legacy for Sony, further solidifying their presence in the music industry.

Netflix is taking a two-pronged approach to attract advertisers this year. They'll have an in-person presentation during traditional upfront week in May, while also continuing to build their ad-supported content. This strategy highlights their efforts to expand their advertising business, which is still in its early stages.

While Paramount Plus offered the lowest latency among streaming services during the Super Bowl (averaging 42.73 seconds), viewers still reported issues with slow loading, lagging, and crashing. This stands in contrast to CBS's record viewership figures, underscoring the challenges of streaming live events at scale. Despite the Super Bowl success, Paramount Global announced layoffs of around 800 employees, raising questions about their broader strategy.

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Tech Titans: AI, Social Media, Gaming, and More

Microsoft : Microsoft's new AI assistant, Copilot, has garnered mixed reviews from testers. While praised for its usefulness, concerns about its price and occasional shortcomings linger. Meanwhile, Microsoft is doubling down on AI, partnering with OpenAI to develop "GPTBot," a web search product powered by GPT-4 and Bing that could challenge Google's dominance. On the gaming front, the Xbox Game Pass subscriber base continues to grow, reaching 34 million, and Microsoft announced plans to bring some Xbox exclusives to PS5 and Switch, expanding their reach.

Apple : Apple is stepping into the AI code completion arena with a tool similar to Microsoft's Copilot. This feature, potentially arriving in Xcode later this year, could automate parts of the software development process. Additionally, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg threw down the gauntlet, positioning the Quest 3 as a superior VR experience compared to Apple's Vision Pro, despite Meta's ongoing financial losses in the AR/VR space. Reports suggest a wave of early adopters are returning their Apple Vision Pro headsets, highlighting potential issues with the device.

Meta : Meta is facing scrutiny for its monetization strategies, with a new 30% fee implemented for advertisers boosting post visibility on Facebook and Instagram's iOS apps. Despite CEO Mark Zuckerberg's previous statements about prioritizing non-political content, Meta is testing a new "trends" feature in Threads that could potentially surface political topics.

Slack : Enterprise Slack users can now leverage AI-powered summaries of threads and channel activity, making it easier to catch up on work discussions.

YouTube : As part of its ongoing competition with TikTok, YouTube is empowering users to incorporate or "remix" music videos into their Shorts content, taking advantage of its vast library of official music videos.

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Super Bowl Sunday looms, and with it, the question on many minds: where to watch the NFL's biggest game? Unlike a decade ago, the television landscape has fragmented, making finding the Super Bowl more complex. The Super Bowl's cultural impact is undeniable. This year's matchup promises even more intrigue, with captivating narratives surrounding both teams. Look out for those great ads as well!

Tech Titans: Streaming, gaming, AI, and more

YouTube is gearing up for the Super Bowl with new ad formats like "First Position Moments" and "Content Takeover" to help brands capture the massive viewership. Meanwhile, their Vision Pro app remains elusive, with no confirmed timeline despite initial murmurs. YouTube TV continues to dominate the internet-streaming subscription TV market with over 8 million subscribers. They also rolled out new features like improved multiview and enhanced picture quality, further solidifying their position in the market. Additionally, Google One introduced their AI Premium plan, offering AI-powered tools for writing, organizing, and productivity at $19.99 per month.

Apple unveiled a robust slate of original scripted series for Apple TV+ at the TCA Winter Press Tour, including exciting titles like "The New Look" and "Constellation." They also acquired German AI startup Brighter AI to bolster privacy features on Apple Vision Pro, showcasing their commitment to user data protection. However, users locked out of their Vision Pro headsets currently need to visit an Apple store for a fix, highlighting a potential snag in user experience.

Netflix is making waves on two fronts: partnering with Expedia as their first global advertising client, offering targeted ads to ad-supported viewers, and teaming up with Major League Baseball for two Boston Red Sox projects, including a "Drive to Survive"-style docuseries on their 2024 season and a commemorative documentary on their historic 2004 championship win. Additionally, they will start adding the Florida state sales tax (5.07%) to monthly bills starting February 15th.

Microsoft is expected to shed light on their multi-platform gaming strategy next week, potentially bringing Xbox exclusives like Hi-Fi Rush to PS5 and Switch consoles. This move aligns with their recent leaks hinting at the inclusion of the upcoming Indiana Jones game on PS5.

Amazon subscribers to their MGM streaming service will see a price increase in their next bill, with monthly subscriptions jumping to $6.99 and yearly subscriptions to $58.99.

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A Tale of Two Halves for Crypto

January was a rollercoaster ride for the cryptocurrency ecosystem, marked by the highly anticipated approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. In the first half, the market continued the Q4 rally fueled by this expectation, but the mood shifted after the ETFs launched on January 10th. Following a classic "sell the news" scenario, most major coins ended the month flat, with altcoins taking the brunt of the losses.

Despite the lack of overall price movement, trading activity remained healthy. January volumes were slightly higher than year-end 2023, and the NFT market also exhibited stronger resilience than token prices. However, it's important to note that both volume and activity are still significantly down compared to past years.

While Bitcoin dominated the narrative throughout the latter half of 2023 and January 2024 due to the ETF excitement, it's now time to shift our focus to Ethereum. The network is currently undergoing crucial improvements in its distribution model and protocol, which could have significant implications for the future of the entire ecosystem

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Compare this to 15-20 years ago when unit growth rates were +15% YoY – small disruptions in supply/demand would drive significant swings in inventory, shipments, capacity planning, and equipment spending. The current environment is likely more stable and less cyclical for semiconductor and semiconductor capital equipment suppliers. In this maturing industry, the focus will be on market leadership/scale, operating margin and FCF margin expansion, and increasing payout ratios.

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Following a correction in 2023 (down 8-10% YoT), fundamentals are stabilizing, and I expect demand to recover this year. I see semiconductor stocks having 15-25% upside, and our tops picks having 25%+ upside from current levels over the next 12-18 months as EPS estimates start to rise.

Government incentives for US domestic manufacturing capability are a positive – innovation and assurance of the supply base. Rep. Nancy Pelosi has even made a personal commitment in this space, making over $900,000 on her recent trade. She has made over four times her Congressional salary in 71 days on one trade. Her Nvidia call option is now up almost 45%+ since she entered two months ago.

The Biden administration, eager to highlight a signature economic initiative as elections approach, is expected to award billions of dollars in subsidies to Intel , Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co , and other top semiconductor companies in coming weeks to help build new factories.

Given continued volatility, we should focus on market leadership, strong US-based exposure to cloud/5G/AI infrastructure spending trends, strong product cycles, diversification, margin/free cash flow expansion with increasing payout ratios.

For my premium subscribers, below are the top picks this year:

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Tech Titans

Google (Alphabet): Google has unveiled an update to its Ads platform, leveraging its Gemini family of multimodal large language models. This enhancement aims to streamline the creation and scaling of Search ad campaigns for advertisers, offering a chat-based tool within the conversational experience.

The tool utilizes website URLs to generate relevant ad content, including assets and keywords. Additionally, Google Chrome is set to introduce AI features in its next release, featuring a writing assistant, an AI-powered tab organizer, and a custom theme creator using generative AI.

Apple: Apple Music is incentivizing artists to embrace Spatial Audio by offering up to a 10% bonus in royalties for tracks available in this immersive format. This move encourages a richer listening experience when using AirPods Pro, AirPods Max, and other headphones.

iOS 17.3 introduces a new security feature called Stolen Device Protection, requiring fingerprint or Face ID authentication for specific actions to enhance security.

Amazon: Ring, owned by Amazon , has announced the discontinuation of its "Request for Assistance" tool, which allowed police to request users' doorbell video footage in the Neighbors app. This change comes after Ring made police requests for user footage public in 2021.

Microsoft: Microsoft is undergoing layoffs, affecting 1,900 employees primarily at Activision Blizzard, with some impact on Xbox and ZeniMax roles. This represents approximately 8% of the overall Microsoft Gaming division. Concurrently, Blizzard president Mike Ybarra has decided to depart from the company.

Sports & Sports Betting

DraftKings and Barstool Sports: DraftKings stock experienced a significant rally, reaching its highest level since late 2021, as reports suggested the company is nearing a deal with Barstool Sports. The proposed partnership involves a traditional marketing collaboration, where Barstool would promote DraftKings odds. This arrangement would benefit Barstool through customer referrals to the sportsbook, although the Barstool brand itself will not be directly associated with a sportsbook or betting app. DraftKings stock has rallied nearly 10% so far this year.

NFL Divisional Playoffs: The NFL's divisional playoffs maintained their dominance in TV viewing, capturing a 33.62% share of viewership during the weekend, an increase from the previous season. The games averaged 40 million viewers on traditional TV and digital platforms, marking the highest number on record since 1988.

Premium: Q1 2024 Setup

Exciting times are upon us in Q1 2024. As we approach the end of January, the market is poised for strategic moves that could shape the investment landscape. Here's a glimpse of what's coming:

• The potential retest of a critical level in the broader Computer Tech market.

• The rise in Crude Oil futures, breaking above key indicators, and how to interpret sentiment to position yourself for success.

• Potential market dynamics in the Information Technology sector, providing exciting possibilities for a strategic run into the Fall and voting season.

Don't miss out on these insights that could make all the difference in your portfolio! Upgrade to our premium subscription to unlock the full content and seize these opportunities. Elevate your investment game and stay ahead of the curve!

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This week will focus on the earning calls and financial results of several key banks.

Among those set to announce their earnings later this week are Bank of America , JPMorgan Chase , Citigroup , BlackRock , Wells Fargo, and Bank of New York Mellon.

In other news, developments in the cryptocurrency and regulatory sectors continue to make headlines. The SEC's potential approval of Bitcoin ETFs remains a topic of interest and could be resolved in 3 days.

Coinbase's strategic move to acquire a European company with a MiFID II license is anticipated to enable the offering of crypto-linked derivatives in the EU.

Rates Revving Up, Not Dropping Dead: 2024 Outlook

• Mortgages: Cooling off, but still simmering at 5-6%. Fed cuts might bring relief in 2025 (post-election).

• Cars: Ditch the 0% fantasy, rates hold near 7.7%. Buckle up, not brace.

• Credit Cards: No material interest rate impact, 18-19% will be the new normal (down from record 21%).

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